{"id":1159,"date":"2026-07-30T02:26:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T18:26:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/?page_id=1159"},"modified":"2026-07-30T09:56:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T01:56:07","slug":"micron-dram-cycle-review-2016-2020-20260730","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/micron-dram-cycle-review-2016-2020-20260730\/","title":{"rendered":"\u590d\u76d8\u7f8e\u514916-20\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u3001\u5185\u5b58\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f"},"content":{"rendered":"<style id=\"mu-cycle-report-style\">\nbody.page-id-1159 {\n  background: #eef1f2;\n}\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-site-blocks,\nbody.page-id-1159 main.wp-block-group,\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-block-post-content {\n  max-width: none !important;\n  margin: 0 !important;\n  padding: 0 !important;\n  width: 100% !important;\n}\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-block-post-title,\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-block-post-featured-image,\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-site-blocks > header,\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-site-blocks > footer,\nbody.page-id-1159 header.wp-block-template-part,\nbody.page-id-1159 footer.wp-block-template-part,\nbody.page-id-1159 nav.wp-block-navigation,\nbody.page-id-1159 .post-navigation,\nbody.page-id-1159 .navigation.post-navigation {\n  display: none !important;\n}\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-block-post-content > .mu-cycle-note-outer,\nbody.page-id-1159 .wp-block-post-content .mu-cycle-note-outer,\nbody.page-id-1159 .entry-content > .mu-cycle-note-outer,\nbody.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note-outer {\n  box-sizing: border-box !important;\n  display: block !important;\n  max-width: none !important;\n  width: 100vw;\n  margin-left: calc(50% - 50vw) !important;\n  margin-right: calc(50% - 50vw) !important;\n  margin-top: 0 !important;\n  margin-bottom: 0 !important;\n  background: #eef1f2;\n}\nbody.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .page {\n  max-width: 1320px !important;\n}\nbody.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .inner {\n  width: min(1140px, calc(100% - 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var(--line);padding:13px 12px}\n.mu-cycle-note th{background:#f0f3f4;color:#373d41;font-size:12px}\n.mu-cycle-note .num{text-align:right;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}\n.mu-cycle-note .source-list{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(2,1fr);gap:0 32px;margin-top:26px}\n.mu-cycle-note .source{border-top:1px solid var(--line);padding:14px 0;font-size:13px;color:#555d62}\n.mu-cycle-note .source b{color:#252b2f}\n.mu-cycle-note .limits{border-left:4px solid var(--red);padding-left:18px;color:#555d62}\n.mu-cycle-note footer{padding:28px 0 38px;background:#202529;color:#bfc6ca;font-size:12px}\n@media(max-width:900px){.mu-cycle-note .inner{width:min(100% - 28px,1260px)}\n.mu-cycle-note header{padding:40px 0 30px}\n.mu-cycle-note .executive-grid,.mu-cycle-note .phase,.mu-cycle-note .logic-grid,.mu-cycle-note .source-list{grid-template-columns:1fr}\n.mu-cycle-note .phase{gap:18px}\n.mu-cycle-note .kpis{grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr}\n.mu-cycle-note dl{grid-template-columns:76px 1fr}\n.mu-cycle-note section{padding:38px 0}}\n@media(max-width:520px){.mu-cycle-note .kpis{grid-template-columns:1fr}\n.mu-cycle-note .meta{gap:9px 18px}\n.mu-cycle-note h1{font-size:34px}}\n@media print{.mu-cycle-note{background:#fff}\n.mu-cycle-note .page{box-shadow:none}\n.mu-cycle-note .chart-shell{overflow:visible}\n.mu-cycle-note .chart-shell svg{min-width:0}\n.mu-cycle-note a{color:inherit}}\n.mu-cycle-note .risk-section {\n  padding: 24px 0;\n  background: #ffffff;\n}\n.mu-cycle-note .risk-section-bottom {\n  border-top: 1px solid var(--line);\n}\n.mu-cycle-note .risk {\n  margin: 0;\n  padding: 14px 16px;\n  color: #d93025;\n  background: #fff6f5;\n  border-left: 4px solid #d93025;\n  border-radius: 6px;\n  font-weight: 700;\n  font-size: 16px;\n  line-height: 1.75;\n}\n@media(max-width: 640px) {\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note-outer {\n    width: 100%;\n    margin-left: 0;\n    margin-right: 0;\n  }\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .inner {\n    width: min(100% - 28px, 1140px) !important;\n  }\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note header {\n    padding: 34px 0 26px !important;\n  }\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note h1 {\n    font-size: 30px !important;\n  }\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .executive-grid,\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .phase,\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .logic-grid,\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .source-list {\n    grid-template-columns: 1fr !important;\n  }\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .executive-grid {\n    gap: 24px !important;\n  }\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .kpis {\n    grid-template-columns: 1fr !important;\n  }\n  body.page-id-1159 .mu-cycle-note .phase {\n    gap: 18px !important;\n  }\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"mu-cycle-note-outer article-mu-cycle-report\">\n<div class=\"mu-cycle-note\">\n<main class=\"page\"><\/p>\n<header>\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<p class=\"eyebrow\">PUBLIC EQUITY CYCLE REVIEW<\/p>\n<h1>\u590d\u76d8\u7f8e\u514916-20\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u3001\u5185\u5b58\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f<\/h1>\n<p class=\"dek\">\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e0a\u4e00\u8f6e2016\u5e74\u52302020\u5e74\u7684\u5185\u5b58\u80a1\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u4e0a\u4e00\u8f6e\u4e5f\u662fdram\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u4e863\u500d\uff08\u672c\u8f6e\u662f4\u500d\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u5149\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u57282018\u5e74\u9ad8\u70b9\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da83\u500d\uff08\u672c\u8f6e\u662f17\u500d\uff09\u3001\u7f8e\u5149\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e8610\u500d\uff08\u672c\u8f6e\u662f20\u500d\uff09\u3001\u7f8e\u5149\u80a1\u4ef7\u63d0\u524ddram\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u89c1\u9876\uff08\u672c\u6b21\u63d0\u524d\u4e866\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6-dram\u77ed\u7f3a\u6301\u7eed\u5230\u6700\u65e92017\u5e74\u5e95\uff09\u3001dram\u89c1\u9876\u540e\u4ef7\u683c\u8170\u65a9\u4e14\u7f8e\u5149\u5229\u6da6\u8170\u65a9\uff08\u672c\u8f6e\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u662f\u8fd9\u4e48\u9884\u671f\u7684\uff09\u3002\u505a\u4e86\u4e0a\u8ff0\u590d\u76d8\u548c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u672c\u8f6e\u5b58\u50a8\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5468\u671f\u6bd4\u4e0a\u4e00\u8f6eidc\u5468\u671f\u5f3a\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5185\u5b58\u4ef7\u683c\u89c1\u9876\u4e5f\u8fd8\u65e9\uff0c\u4f9b\u9700\u5173\u7cfb\u57282028\u5e74\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u626d\u8f6c\u4e3a\u4f9b\u5927\u4e8e\u6c42\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e0d\u50cf19\u5e74\u90a3\u4e48\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u672c\u8f6e\u9700\u6c42\u8fd8\u5728\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11hbm\u5230\u4e8628\u5e74\u4e5f\u8fd8\u662f\u4f9b\u4e0d\u5e94\u6c42\uff08\u9664\u975e\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u7684gpu\u6ca1\u4eba\u8981\u4e86\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u7b97\u6309\u71672019\u5e74\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u770b\uff08dram\u8170\u65a9\u3001\u5229\u6da6\u8170\u65a9\uff09\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u7f8e\u5149\u80a1\u4ef7\u8170\u65a9\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5229\u7a7a\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5151\u73b0\u5230\u4e86\u80a1\u4ef7\u91cc\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u5f00\u542f\u4e86\u4e00\u8f6e50%\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2ddram\u4ef7\u683c\u8fd8\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5229\u597d\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ece\u52a0\u606f\u8f6c\u4e3a\u505c\u6b62\u52a0\u606f\u8868\u6001\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u672c\u8f6e\u7684\u5b58\u50a8\u80a1\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u662f\u65e0\u5e95\u6d1e\uff0c\u66f4\u4f55\u51b5\u672c\u8f6e\u7684\u5185\u5b58\u4f9b\u9700\u5173\u7cfb\u8fdc\u6bd4\u4e0a\u4e00\u8f6e\u597d\uff0c\u8170\u65a9\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5de6\u4fa7\u5efa\u4ed3\u7684\u65f6\u673a\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5de6\u4fa7\u5efa\u4ed3\u53ea\u80fd\u6162\u6162\u4e70\uff0c\u4e14\u6709\u957f\u671f\u6301\u80a1\u5fc3\u6001\u624d\u884c\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fce\u6765\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u5927\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"meta\"><span>\u80a1\u7968\uff1aMicron Technology\uff08NASDAQ: MU\uff09<\/span><span>\u533a\u95f4\uff1a2016-03-01\u20142020-12-31<\/span><span>\u7814\u7a76\u622a\u70b9\uff1a2026-07-30<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"risk-section\">\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<p class=\"risk\">\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u793a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u611f\u609f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u5206\u6790\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u77ed\u671f\u6da8\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ed3\u8bba\u65e2\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7edd\u5bf9\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u98ce\u9669\u6781\u5927\uff0c\u4e25\u7981\u91cd\u4ed3\u4e2a\u80a1\u3001\u4e25\u7981\u52a0\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u968f\u65f6\u4f1a\u6709\u5de8\u4e8f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"executive\">\n<div class=\"inner executive-grid\">\n<div>\n<h2>\u6267\u884c\u7ed3\u8bba<\/h2>\n<div class=\"takeaway\">\n<p><strong>2016\u20142018\u4e3b\u5347\u6d6a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4e0d\u662f\u201c\u4f30\u503c\u4fbf\u5b9c\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662fDRAM\u4ef7\u683c\u4ece\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8f6c\u4e3a\u4e0a\u6da8\u540e\uff0cMicron\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u548c\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\u51fa\u73b0\u6781\u5f3a\u7ecf\u8425\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/strong>\u6536\u5165\u4e24\u5e74\u589e\u957f145%\uff0c\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\u4ece\u4e8f\u635f\u53d8\u6210$14.1B\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u81ea\u7136\u5148\u4e8e\u8d22\u62a5\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u4fee\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2018\u5e745\u6708\u80a1\u4ef7\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u9886\u51488\u20149\u6708DRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u5cf0\u503c\u7ea63\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/strong>\u4e3b\u8dcc\u6d6a\u9996\u5148\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u662f\u672a\u6765ASP\u4e0b\u964d\uff1b\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4ece2018\u5e743\u6708301\u884c\u52a8\u5f00\u59cb\u30017\u6708\u9996\u8f6e\u5173\u7a0e\u751f\u6548\uff0c\u53e0\u52a0\u5168\u5e74\u56db\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u628a\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u62ac\u9ad8\u5e76\u653e\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2019\u5e744\u6708\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53cd\u5f39\u4e3b\u8981\u662fFed\u8f6c\u9e3d\u548c\u8d85\u8dcc\u4fee\u590d\u3002<\/strong>\u5f53\u65f6DRAM\u4ef7\u683c\u4ecd\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53cd\u5f39\u7f3a\u4e4f\u76c8\u5229\u5e95\u652f\u6491\uff1b\u771f\u6b63\u66f4\u624e\u5b9e\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u59cb\u4e8e2019\u5e746\u6708\u4e8c\u6b21\u4f4e\u70b9\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5e76\u57288\u20149\u6708\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u4f01\u7a33\u65f6\u5f97\u5230\u786e\u8ba4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2020\u5e743\u6708\u662f\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u51b2\u51fb\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/strong>\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u3001\u5f00\u653e\u5f0fQE\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u6269\u5f20\u5148\u4fee\u590d\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u4e91\u3001PC\u4e0e\u5e93\u5b58\u5468\u671f\u518d\u4fee\u590d\u76c8\u5229\u9884\u671f\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\u80a1\u4ef7\u5728FY20\u5229\u6da6\u4ecd\u4e0b\u6ed1\u65f6\u5df2\u91cd\u8fd4\u524d\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"kpis\">\n<div class=\"kpi\"><b>+546%<\/b><span>2016\u5e743\u6708\u4f4e\u70b9\u81f32018\u5e745\u6708\u9ad8\u70b9<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"kpi\"><b>-56.1%<\/b><span>2018\u5e745\u6708\u81f312\u6708\u4e3b\u8dcc\u6d6a<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"kpi\"><b>+58.0%<\/b><span>2018\u5e7412\u6708\u81f32019\u5e744\u6708\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53cd\u5f39<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"kpi\"><b>+109.6%<\/b><span>2020\u5e743\u6708\u81f311\u6708\u5e95\u91cd\u8fd4\u524d\u9ad8<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<h2>\u5468K\u7ebf\u4e0e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8f74<\/h2>\n<p class=\"section-intro\">\u4ef7\u683c\u7528\u672a\u590d\u6743\u65e5\u7ebf\u805a\u5408\u4e3a\u5468K\u3002\u9636\u6bb5\u6da8\u8dcc\u5e45\u91c7\u7528\u76d8\u4e2d\u6781\u503c\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u590d\u76d8\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u62d0\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u53ef\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ea4\u6613\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-shell\" id=\"kline-wrap\"><img alt=\"Micron 2016\u81f32020\u5468K\u7ebf\u4e0e\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e8b\u4ef6\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/micron-weekly-kline-2016-2020-20260730-1.png\"\/><\/div>\n<p class=\"chart-note\">\u5173\u952e\u6821\u6b63\uff1a\u4f60\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u201c18\u5e744\u6708\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53cd\u5f39\u201d\uff0c\u6309\u5b8c\u6574\u884c\u60c5\u8def\u5f84\u5e94\u4e3a\u201c2019\u5e744\u6708\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53cd\u5f39\u201d\uff1b2018\u5e744\u6708\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u4e3b\u5347\u6d6a\u5185\u90e8\u9707\u8361\u3002\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u8d77\u70b9\u5e94\u653e\u57282018\u5e74\uff1a3\u670822\u65e5301\u884c\u52a8\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c7\u67086\u65e5\u9996\u8f6e\u5173\u7a0e\u751f\u6548\uff0c2019\u5e74\u662f\u5347\u7ea7\u548c\u53cd\u590d\u9636\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"alt\">\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<h2>\u4e09\u6761\u5468\u671f\u66f2\u7ebf<\/h2>\n<p class=\"section-intro\">Fed\u5229\u7387\u3001DRAM\u62a5\u4ef7\u548cMicron\u5229\u6da6\u4e0d\u662f\u540c\u6b65\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u5148\u4ea4\u6613\u672a\u6765\u76c8\u5229\uff0c\u518d\u7531\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u548c\u8d22\u62a5\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff1b\u5b8f\u89c2\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u6298\u73b0\u7387\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8\u5e02\u573a\u613f\u610f\u63d0\u524d\u591a\u8fdc\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-shell\"><img alt=\"Fed\u5229\u7387\u3001DRAM\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0eMicron\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5468\u671f\u5bf9\u7167\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/micron-dram-cycle-comparison-2016-2020-20260730-1.png\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<h2>\u5206\u9636\u6bb5\u590d\u76d8<\/h2>\n<p class=\"section-intro\">\u6bcf\u4e00\u6bb5\u90fd\u6309\u201c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u2014\u5b8f\u89c2\u2014\u80a1\u4ef7\u5b9a\u4ef7\u201d\u62c6\u5f00\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d9\u4e8b\u89e3\u91ca\u6240\u6709\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<article class=\"phase\">\n<div class=\"phase-side\">\n<p class=\"phase-period\">2016\/3\u20142018\/5<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e3b\u5347\u6d6a\uff1a\u76c8\u5229\u53cd\u8f6c\u5148\u4e8e\u201c\u8d85\u7ea7\u5468\u671f\u201d\u53d9\u4e8b<\/h3>\n<p class=\"phase-move\">\u7ea6$10.01 \u2192 $64.66\uff0c+546%\uff1b\u82e5\u4ece2016\/5\u771f\u6b63\u5468\u671f\u4f4e\u70b9$9.35\u7b97\uff0c\u7ea6+592%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"phase-body\">\n<dl>\n<dt>\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/dt>\n<dd>2016\u5e74PC DRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u57286\u6708\u6b62\u8dcc\uff0c4GB\u6a21\u5757\u4ece$12.5\u4e00\u8def\u6da8\u52302018\u5e748\u6708\u7ea6$34.5\uff1b\u968f\u540e\u4f9b\u5e94\u7eaa\u5f8b\u3001\u4e91\/\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u3001\u79fb\u52a8\u548c\u56fe\u5f62\u9700\u6c42\u5171\u540c\u63a8\u5347\u4ef7\u683c\u3002Micron\u6536\u5165\u4eceFY16\u7684$12.399B\u5347\u81f3FY18\u7684$30.391B\uff0cGAAP\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\u4ece-$0.276B\u5347\u81f3$14.135B\uff1bFY18 DRAM\u6536\u5165\u540c\u6bd4\u589e64%\uff0cASP\u7ea6\u589e35%\u3002<a href=\"#s3\">[S3]<\/a><a href=\"#s18\">[S18]<\/a><a href=\"#s19\">[S19]<\/a><a href=\"#s7\">[S7]<\/a><a href=\"#s6\">[S6]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56<\/dt>\n<dd>2016\u20142017\u4ecd\u5728\u7f13\u6162\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u76c8\u5229\u4e0a\u4fee\u538b\u8fc7\u4e86\u4f30\u503c\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u4e0a\u884c\u3002\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u6309\u8d77\u70b9\u5e94\u7b972018\u5e74\uff1a3\u670822\u65e5301\u884c\u52a8\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c7\u67086\u65e5\u9996\u8f6e\u5173\u7a0e\u751f\u6548\uff1b2018\u5e744\u6708\u80a1\u4ef7\u4ecd\u4e3b\u8981\u4ea4\u6613DRAM\u76c8\u5229\u4e0a\u4fee\u3002<a href=\"#s20\">[S20]<\/a><a href=\"#s12\">[S12]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u590d\u76d8\u5224\u65ad<\/dt>\n<dd>\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bb5\u9996\u5148\u662f\u201cDRAM\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u8f6c \u00d7 \u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u5bfc\u81f4\u5229\u6da6\u5f39\u6027\u7206\u53d1\u201d\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6269\u5f20\u662f\u540e\u534a\u7a0b\u7684\u653e\u5927\u5668\u30022018\u5e745\u6708\u7684\u6700\u540e\u51b2\u523a\u8fd8\u53e0\u52a0\u4e86\u6700\u9ad8$10B\u56de\u8d2d\u6388\u6743\u3002<a href=\"#s6\">[S6]<\/a><\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"phase\">\n<div class=\"phase-side\">\n<p class=\"phase-period\">2018\/5\u20142018\/12<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e3b\u8dcc\u6d6a\uff1a\u80a1\u4ef7\u5148\u4e8e\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u89c1\u9876<\/h3>\n<p class=\"phase-move\">$64.66 \u2192 $28.39\uff0c-56.1%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"phase-body\">\n<dl>\n<dt>\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/dt>\n<dd>8GB PC DRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u52302018\u5e748\u20149\u6708\u4ecd\u7ea6$68\uff0c\u4f46TrendForce\u5df2\u6307\u51fa\u73b0\u8d27\u4ef7\u57288\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5e76\u9884\u793a4Q18\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u8f6c\u5f31\u3002Micron\u5f53\u65f6\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u597d\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5374\u662f\u672a\u6765ASP\u548c\u5e93\u5b58\u62d0\u70b9\u3002<a href=\"#s7\">[S7]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56<\/dt>\n<dd>\u7f8e\u56fd3\u670822\u65e5\u5ba3\u5e03301\u884c\u52a8\uff0c7\u6708\u5bf9$34B\u4e2d\u56fd\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f8125%\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c9\u6708\u518d\u5bf9\u7ea6$200B\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f8110%\u5173\u7a0e\uff1bFed\u5168\u5e74\u56db\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\uff0c12\u6708\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u5347\u81f32.25%\u20142.50%\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u548c\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u540c\u65f6\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<a href=\"#s20\">[S20]<\/a><a href=\"#s12\">[S12]<\/a><a href=\"#s13\">[S13]<\/a><a href=\"#s9\">[S9]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u590d\u76d8\u5224\u65ad<\/dt>\n<dd>\u4e3b\u56e0\u4ecd\u662f\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u63d0\u524d\u4ea4\u6613\u5185\u5b58\u4e0b\u884c\u5468\u671f\u201d\uff1b\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e0e\u52a0\u606f\u628a\u8dcc\u5e45\u3001\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u4f30\u503c\u538b\u7f29\u653e\u5927\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u5728DRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u5cf0\u503c\u524d\u7ea63\u4e2a\u6708\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5468\u671f\u80a1\u7684\u5178\u578b\u9886\u5148\u3002<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"phase\">\n<div class=\"phase-side\">\n<p class=\"phase-period\">2018\/12\u20142019\/4<\/p>\n<h3>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53cd\u5f39\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2\u5148\u4fee\u590d\uff0c\u76c8\u5229\u5c1a\u672a\u89c1\u5e95<\/h3>\n<p class=\"phase-move\">$28.39 \u2192 $44.85\uff0c+58.0%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"phase-body\">\n<dl>\n<dt>\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/dt>\n<dd>DRAM\u5e76\u672a\u89c1\u5e95\uff1a8GB\u6a21\u5757\u7ea6\u4ece2018\u5e7412\u6708\u7684$60\u964d\u52302019\u5e743\u6708\u7ea6$40\uff0c4\u6708\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5230$34\u3002\u5e93\u5b58\u9ad8\u4f01\u3001Intel CPU\u77ed\u7f3a\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u5f31\u7ee7\u7eed\u538b\u5236\u62a5\u4ef7\u3002<a href=\"#s8\">[S8]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56<\/dt>\n<dd>2019\u5e741\u670830\u65e5Fed\u6539\u7528\u201c\u8010\u5fc3\u201d\u63aa\u8f9e\uff0c3\u6708\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u8f6c\u5411\u5e74\u5185\u4e0d\u52a0\u606f\u9884\u671f\uff1b\u6b64\u524dG20\u4f11\u6218\u4e5f\u7f13\u89e3\u4e86\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u5f62\u3002\u8d85\u8dcc\u3001\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\u548c\u56de\u8d2d\u9884\u671f\u5171\u540c\u63a8\u52a8\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<a href=\"#s10\">[S10]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u590d\u76d8\u5224\u65ad<\/dt>\n<dd>\u8fd9\u662f\u201c\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u4e0b\u964d + \u6700\u574f\u9884\u671f\u56de\u64a4\u201d\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4fee\u590d\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u76c8\u5229\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u80fd\u5148\u6da8\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709DRAM\u4ef7\u683c\u6b62\u8dcc\u786e\u8ba4\uff0c\u53cd\u5f39\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u518d\u5ea6\u6076\u5316\u65f6\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"phase\">\n<div class=\"phase-side\">\n<p class=\"phase-period\">2019\/4\u20142019\/6<\/p>\n<h3>\u53cd\u5f39\u56de\u64a4\u4e0e\u4e8c\u6b21\u7b51\u5e95\uff1a\u8d38\u6613\u51b2\u7a81\u51fb\u4e2d\u5ba2\u6237\u94fe<\/h3>\n<p class=\"phase-move\">$44.85 \u2192 $32.14\uff0c-28.3%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"phase-body\">\n<dl>\n<dt>\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/dt>\n<dd>FY19\u6536\u5165\u964d\u81f3$23.406B\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4-23.0%\uff1bGAAP\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\u964d\u81f3$6.313B\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4-55.3%\uff1bDRAM\u6536\u5165-28%\uff0cASP\u7ea6-30%\u3002\u534e\u4e3a\u5360Micron FY19\u6536\u516512%\uff0c5\u670816\u65e5\u8d77\u4e00\u5ea6\u505c\u6b62\u5168\u90e8\u51fa\u8d27\u3002<a href=\"#s5\">[S5]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56<\/dt>\n<dd>2019\u5e745\u6708\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u518d\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u534e\u4e3a\u88ab\u5217\u5165\u5b9e\u4f53\u6e05\u5355\uff1b\u5b8f\u89c2\u5bbd\u677e\u9884\u671f\u5c1a\u672a\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5b9e\u9645\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u8ba1\u5165\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/dd>\n<dt>\u590d\u76d8\u5224\u65ad<\/dt>\n<dd>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53cd\u5f39\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u5b8f\u89c2\u53ea\u80fd\u62ac\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u7acb\u5373\u6d88\u5316\u6e20\u9053\u5e93\u5b58\u30026\u6708\u4e8c\u6b21\u4f4e\u70b9\u6bd4DRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef78\u20149\u6708\u7a33\u5b9a\u53c8\u63d0\u524d\u7ea62\u20143\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"phase\">\n<div class=\"phase-side\">\n<p class=\"phase-period\">2019\/6\u20142020\/2<\/p>\n<h3>\u9884\u671f\u4fee\u590d\uff1aDRAM\u7b51\u5e95\u4e0e\u964d\u606f\u5171\u632f<\/h3>\n<p class=\"phase-move\">$32.14 \u2192 $61.19\uff0c+90.4%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"phase-body\">\n<dl>\n<dt>\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/dt>\n<dd>8GB PC DRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u57282019\u5e748\u6708\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e8e$25.5\uff0c9\u6708\u9884\u8ba1\u7ef4\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\uff1b\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u524a\u51cf\u8d44\u672c\u5f00\u652f\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u56de\u5f52\u5408\u7406\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6eASP\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5f53\u671f\u5229\u6da6\u3002<a href=\"#s4\">[S4]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56<\/dt>\n<dd>Fed\u4ece7\u670831\u65e5\u5f00\u59cb\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u968f\u540e9\u6708\u548c10\u6708\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u8c03\uff0c\u5e74\u5e95\u6709\u6548\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7ea61.55%\uff1b\u8d38\u6613\u8c08\u5224\u4e5f\u4ece\u5347\u7ea7\u8f6c\u5411\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u534f\u8bae\u9884\u671f\u3002<a href=\"#s11\">[S11]<\/a><a href=\"#s1\">[S1]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u590d\u76d8\u5224\u65ad<\/dt>\n<dd>\u8fd9\u662f\u66f4\u624e\u5b9e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u4e0a\u6da8\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2\u964d\u4f4e\u6298\u73b0\u7387\uff0cDRAM\u4ef7\u683c\u505c\u6b62\u6076\u5316\u63d0\u4f9b\u76c8\u5229\u5e95\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u5230\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd12018\u5e74\u524d\u9ad8\u3002<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"phase\">\n<div class=\"phase-side\">\n<p class=\"phase-period\">2020\/2\u20142020\/3<\/p>\n<h3>\u75ab\u60c5\u51b2\u51fb\uff1a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5185\u5b58\u5468\u671f\u5355\u56e0\u5b50<\/h3>\n<p class=\"phase-move\">$61.19 \u2192 $31.13\uff0c-49.1%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"phase-body\">\n<dl>\n<dt>\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/dt>\n<dd>\u75ab\u60c5\u521d\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u6cd5\u5224\u65ad\u624b\u673a\u3001\u6c7d\u8f66\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u548cPC\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u51c0\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e0e\u5ba2\u6237\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u540c\u65f6\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6240\u6709\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u5468\u671f\u80a1\u90fd\u906d\u9047\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/dd>\n<dt>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56<\/dt>\n<dd>Fed\u57283\u670815\u65e5\u628a\u76ee\u6807\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f30\u20140.25%\uff0c3\u670823\u65e5\u5ba3\u5e03\u6309\u201c\u6240\u9700\u89c4\u6a21\u201d\u8d2d\u4e70\u56fd\u503a\u548cMBS\uff1b\u653f\u7b56\u53cd\u5e94\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e4b\u540e\u3002<a href=\"#s14\">[S14]<\/a><a href=\"#s15\">[S15]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u590d\u76d8\u5224\u65ad<\/dt>\n<dd>3\u6708\u4f4e\u70b9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u73b0\u91d1\u548c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u628a\u5b83\u89e3\u91ca\u6210DRAM\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u89c1\u5e95\u4f1a\u9057\u6f0f\u6700\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a\u8de8\u8d44\u4ea7\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"phase\">\n<div class=\"phase-side\">\n<p class=\"phase-period\">2020\/3\u20142020\/12<\/p>\n<h3>\u75ab\u60c5\u540e\u53cd\u5f39\uff1a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6258\u5e95\u53e0\u52a0\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u76c8\u5229\u9884\u671f<\/h3>\n<p class=\"phase-move\">$31.13 \u2192 11\u6708\u5e95$65.25\uff0c+109.6%\uff1b\u5e74\u5e95\u9ad8\u70b9$75.68\uff0c+143.1%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"phase-body\">\n<dl>\n<dt>\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/dt>\n<dd>FY20\u6536\u5165\u4ecd\u540c\u6bd4-8%\uff0c\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\u540c\u6bd4-57%\uff0cDRAM ASP\u4e0b\u964d\u7ea634%\uff1b\u4f46\u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u548c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u63a8\u52a8DRAM bit shipments\u589e\u957f\u7ea630%\u51fa\u5934\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u662f2021\u5e74\u4f9b\u9700\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u843d\u540e\u7684FY20\u5229\u6da6\u3002<a href=\"#s2\">[S2]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u5b8f\u89c2\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56<\/dt>\n<dd>Fed\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ece2020\u5e74\u521d\u7ea6$4.17T\u5347\u81f3\u5e74\u5e95\u7ea6$7.36T\uff0c\u589e\u957f\u7ea676%\uff1b\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u3001\u5f00\u653e\u5f0fQE\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u538b\u4f4e\u6298\u73b0\u7387\uff0c\u5c45\u5bb6\u529e\u516c\u3001\u4e91\u548cPC\u9700\u6c42\u6539\u5584\u4e86\u6536\u5165\u9884\u671f\u3002<a href=\"#s16\">[S16]<\/a><\/dd>\n<dt>\u590d\u76d8\u5224\u65ad<\/dt>\n<dd>\u52302020\u5e7411\u6708\u5e95\uff0c\u76d8\u4e2d\u9ad8\u70b9$65.25\u5df2\u7565\u8d852018\u5e74\u7684$64.66\uff1b\u201c\u63a5\u8fd1\u524d\u9ad8\u201d\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8bf4\u662f\u201c\u5148\u56de\u5230\u5e76\u5c0f\u5e45\u7a81\u7834\uff0c12\u6708\u518d\u660e\u663e\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\u201d\u3002\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u653e\u5927\u5668\uff0c\u4f46\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u4ecd\u9700\u8981DRAM\u5468\u671f\u6539\u5584\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"alt\">\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<h2>\u4e1a\u7ee9\u6865\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\u8fdc\u5927\u4e8e\u6536\u5165<\/h2>\n<p class=\"section-intro\">DRAM\u662f\u9ad8\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u672c\u3001\u4ef7\u683c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u3002ASP\u7684\u5c0f\u5e45\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u4ea7\u80fd\u5229\u7528\u7387\u3001\u5355\u4f4d\u6210\u672c\u548c\u6bdb\u5229\u7387\u653e\u5927\u5230\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64Micron\u66f4\u50cf\u201c\u76c8\u5229\u4e8c\u9636\u5bfc\u6570\u201d\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u8d22\u5e74<\/th>\n<th class=\"num\">\u6536\u5165\uff08$B\uff09<\/th>\n<th class=\"num\">\u540c\u6bd4<\/th>\n<th class=\"num\">GAAP\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\uff08$B\uff09<\/th>\n<th class=\"num\">\u540c\u6bd4<\/th>\n<th>\u5468\u671f\u542b\u4e49<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>FY2016<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">12.399<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">-23%<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">-0.276<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">\u8f6c\u4e8f<\/td>\n<td>DRAM ASP\u4e0b\u8dcc\u538b\u8fc7\u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5468\u671f\u8c37\u5e95\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>FY2017<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">20.322<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">+64%<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">5.089<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">\u626d\u4e8f<\/td>\n<td>\u4ef7\u683c\u3001bit shipments\u4e0e\u9700\u6c42\u5171\u632f\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>FY2018<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">30.391<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">+50%<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">14.135<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">+178%<\/td>\n<td>\u8d85\u7ea7\u5229\u6da6\u5cf0\u503c\uff1bDRAM ASP\u7ea6+35%\u201437%\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>FY2019<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">23.406<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">-23.0%<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">6.313<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">-55.3%<\/td>\n<td>DRAM\u6536\u5165-28%\uff0cASP\u7ea6-30%\uff0c\u5229\u6da6\u964d\u5e45\u5927\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>FY2020<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">21.435<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">-8.4%<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">2.687<\/td>\n<td class=\"num\">-57.4%<\/td>\n<td>\u8d22\u62a5\u4ecd\u5f31\uff0c\u4f46\u80a1\u4ef7\u5df2\u4ea4\u66132021\u5468\u671f\u4e0e\u4f4e\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<div class=\"logic-grid\">\n<div class=\"logic\">\n<h3>1. \u80a1\u7968\u9886\u5148\u5408\u540c\u4ef7<\/h3>\n<p>2018\u5e74\u80a1\u4ef7\u5cf0\u503c\u9886\u5148DRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u5cf0\u503c\u7ea63\u4e2a\u6708\uff1b2018\u5e7412\u6708\u80a1\u4ef7\u4f4e\u70b9\u9886\u51482019\u5e748\u20149\u6708\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u7a33\u5b9a\u7ea68\u20149\u4e2a\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"logic\">\n<h3>2. \u5b8f\u89c2\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f30\u503c\u5f39\u6027<\/h3>\n<p>2018\u5e74\u52a0\u606f\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u8ba9\u76c8\u5229\u4e0b\u884c\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff1b2019\u5e74Fed\u8f6c\u9e3d\u8ba9\u80a1\u4ef7\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u89c1\u5e95\u524d\u5148\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"logic\">\n<h3>3. \u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4e0d\u80fd\u66ff\u4ee3\u76c8\u5229<\/h3>\n<p>2020\u5e74QE\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4f30\u503c\u548c\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u80a1\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\u4ecd\u4f9d\u8d56\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u3001PC\u9700\u6c42\u4e0e\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6eDRAM\u6da8\u4ef7\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section>\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<h2>\u53cd\u8bc1\u4e0e\u76d1\u6d4b\u6846\u67b6<\/h2>\n<p class=\"section-intro\">\u6700\u5f3a\u53cd\u8bba\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u7f8e\u5149\u8d70\u52bf\u53ea\u662fNasdaq\u4e0eFed\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u6620\u5c04\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u80fd\u8986\u76d62019\u548c2020\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4fee\u590d\uff0c\u5374\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0d\u4e862016\u20142018\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\u4ece\u4e8f\u635f\u5230$14B\uff0c\u4e5f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e0d\u4e862019\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u53cd\u5f39\u4e3a\u4f55\u5728DRAM\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u5931\u8d25\u3002<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u9886\u5148\u6307\u6807<\/th>\n<th>\u770b\u4ec0\u4e48<\/th>\n<th>\u5bf9\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u542b\u4e49<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>DRAM\u73b0\u8d27\u4ef7 vs. \u5408\u540c\u4ef7<\/td>\n<td>\u73b0\u8d27\u5148\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u540e\u786e\u8ba4\uff1b\u4e8c\u8005\u4ef7\u5dee\u6269\u5927\u662f\u5e93\u5b58\u538b\u529b\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u51b3\u5b9a\u76c8\u5229\u9884\u671f\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6bd4\u8d22\u62a5\u66f4\u65e9\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u5e93\u5b58\u4e0e\u5ba2\u6237\u5e93\u5b58<\/td>\n<td>\u5e93\u5b58\u5468\u6570\u3001\u670d\u52a1\u5668\/PC OEM\u91c7\u8d2d\u6062\u590d\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u5224\u65ad\u53cd\u5f39\u662f\u9884\u671f\u4fee\u590d\u8fd8\u662f\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u5468\u671f\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>bit supply\u4e0e\u8d44\u672c\u5f00\u652f<\/td>\n<td>\u4e09\u661f\u3001SK\u6d77\u529b\u58eb\u3001Micron\u4ea7\u80fd\u7eaa\u5f8b\u548c\u5236\u7a0b\u8fc1\u79fb\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u5347\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Fed\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868<\/td>\n<td>\u6298\u73b0\u7387\u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u6539\u53d8\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u4e0e\u62d0\u70b9\u63d0\u524d\u91cf\uff0c\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u521b\u9020DRAM\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\u548c\u5173\u952e\u5ba2\u6237<\/td>\n<td>\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u5b9e\u4f53\u6e05\u5355\u3001\u5ba2\u6237\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u3002<\/td>\n<td>\u901a\u8fc7\u6536\u5165\u66b4\u9732\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5f71\u54cd\u80a1\u4ef7\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p class=\"limits\"><strong>\u89c2\u5bdf\u59ff\u6001\uff1a<\/strong>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4efd\u5386\u53f2\u5468\u671f\u590d\u76d8\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u4e70\u5356\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u5b9a\u6301\u4ed3\u3001\u57fa\u51c6\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u9884\u7b97\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u884c\u52a8\u5c42\u9762\u5e94\u662f\u201c\u52a0\u5165\u5468\u671f\u76d1\u6d4b\u6e05\u5355\u3001\u7b49\u5f85DRAM\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u5e93\u5b58\u8bc1\u636e\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u5bfc\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"alt\">\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<h2>\u6765\u6e90\u4e0e\u65b0\u9c9c\u5ea6<\/h2>\n<p class=\"section-intro\">\u5386\u53f2OHLC\u3001FRED\u5e8f\u5217\u548cSEC\u6587\u4ef6\u5747\u5df2\u57282026-07-30\u91cd\u65b0\u8bfb\u53d6\u3002DRAM\u516c\u5f00\u6570\u636e\u4e3aTrendForce\u65b0\u95fb\u7a3f\u4e2d\u7684\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u951a\u70b9\uff1b\u56fe\u4e2d\u4e3a4GB\u7b49\u6548\u53e3\u5f84\uff0c2019\u5e74\u7f3a\u5c114GB\u516c\u5f00\u951a\u70b9\u65f6\u75288GB\u6a21\u5757\u4ef7\u683c\u9664\u4ee52\u5c55\u793a\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u7f3a\u5931\u6708\u4efd\u6ca1\u6709\u4f2a\u9020\u4e3a\u8fde\u7eed\u5b98\u65b9\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u6e90\u4e3aYahoo Finance\u800c\u975e\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u9010\u7b14\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u5386\u53f2\u590d\u76d8\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u4e8e\u5ba1\u8ba1\u6216\u4ea4\u6613\u6267\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"source-list\">\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s1\"><b>[S1]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/FEDFUNDS\">FRED FEDFUNDS<\/a>\uff1a\u6708\u5ea6\u6709\u6548\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c2016\u20142020\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s2\"><b>[S2]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/723125\/000072312520000082\/mu-20200903.htm\">Micron FY2020 Form 10-K<\/a>\uff1a\u6536\u5165\u3001\u51c0\u5229\u6da6\u3001DRAM ASP\u4e0ebit shipments\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s3\"><b>[S3]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20160705-9444.html\">TrendForce, 2016-07-05<\/a>\uff1aDRAM\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u57282016\u5e746\u6708\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e76\u9884\u8ba13Q\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s4\"><b>[S4]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20190926-10189.html\">TrendForce, 2019-09-26<\/a>\uff1a8GB PC DRAM\u6a21\u57578\u6708$25.5\uff0c9\u6708\u9884\u8ba1\u6301\u7a33\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s5\"><b>[S5]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/723125\/000072312519000094\/a2019q4.htm\">Micron FY2019 Form 10-K<\/a>\uff1aFY19\u6536\u5165\u3001\u5229\u6da6\u3001DRAM ASP\u3001\u534e\u4e3a12%\u6536\u5165\u66b4\u9732\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s6\"><b>[S6]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/723125\/000072312518000092\/a2018q4.htm\">Micron FY2018 Form 10-K<\/a>\uff1aFY18\u4e1a\u7ee9\u3001DRAM\u6536\u5165\/ASP\u3001$10B\u56de\u8d2d\u6388\u6743\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s7\"><b>[S7]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20180903-10046.html\">TrendForce, 2018-09-03<\/a>\uff1a8GB\u6a21\u5757$68\uff0c\u73b0\u8d27\u8d70\u5f31\u30014Q\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u9884\u671f\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s8\"><b>[S8]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20190115-10093.html\">TrendForce, 2019-01-15<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20190325-10115.html\">2019-03-25<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20190528-10140.html\">2019-05-28<\/a>\uff1a$60\u3001\u7ea6$40\u4e0e$34\u5408\u540c\u4ef7\u951a\u70b9\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s9\"><b>[S9]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20181219a.htm\">Federal Reserve, 2018-12-19<\/a>\uff1a\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f32.25%\u20142.50%\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s10\"><b>[S10]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20190130a.htm\">Federal Reserve, 2019-01-30<\/a>\uff1a\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8c03\u6574\u4fdd\u6301\u201c\u8010\u5fc3\u201d\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s11\"><b>[S11]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20190731a.htm\">Federal Reserve, 2019-07-31<\/a>\uff1a\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u81f32.00%\u20142.25%\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s12\"><b>[S12]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/about-us\/policy-offices\/press-office\/press-releases\/2018\/june\/ustr-issues-tariffs-chinese-products\">USTR, 2018-06<\/a>\uff1a7\u67086\u65e5\u8d77\u5bf9$34B\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f8125%\u5173\u7a0e\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s13\"><b>[S13]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/about-us\/policy-offices\/press-office\/press-releases\/2018\/september\/ustr-finalizes-tariffs-200\">USTR, 2018-09<\/a>\uff1a9\u670824\u65e5\u8d77\u5bf9\u7ea6$200B\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f8110%\u5173\u7a0e\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s14\"><b>[S14]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20200315a.htm\">Federal Reserve, 2020-03-15<\/a>\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f30\u20140.25%\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s15\"><b>[S15]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20200323b.htm\">Federal Reserve, 2020-03-23<\/a>\uff1a\u6309\u6240\u9700\u89c4\u6a21\u8d2d\u4e70\u56fd\u503a\u548cMBS\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s16\"><b>[S16]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/WALCL\">FRED WALCL<\/a>\uff1aFed\u603b\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c2020\u5e74\u521d$4.17T\u3001\u5e74\u5e95$7.36T\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s17\"><b>[S17]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/query2.finance.yahoo.com\/v8\/finance\/chart\/MU?period1=1451606400&amp;period2=1609459200&amp;interval=1d&amp;events=history&amp;includeAdjustedClose=true\">Yahoo Finance chart API<\/a>\uff1aMU\u5386\u53f2\u65e5\u7ebfOHLC\u4e0e\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s18\"><b>[S18]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20161207-9608.html\">TrendForce, 2016-12-07<\/a>\uff1a4GB PC DRAM\u6a21\u575711\u6708\u5747\u4ef7\u5347\u81f3$18\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s19\"><b>[S19]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20170807-9820.html\">TrendForce, 2017-08-07<\/a>\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.trendforce.com\/presscenter\/news\/20171113-9912.html\">2017-11-13<\/a>\uff1a4GB\u6a21\u57571Q17 $24\u30012Q17 $27\u30014Q17 $30.5\u3002<\/div>\n<div class=\"source\" id=\"s20\"><b>[S20]<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov\/presidential-actions\/presidential-memorandum-actions-united-states-related-section-301-investigation\/\">White House, 2018-03-22<\/a>\uff1a301\u8c03\u67e5\u76f8\u5173\u884c\u52a8\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u8d77\u70b9\uff1b2018\u5e747\u67086\u65e5\u4e3a\u9996\u8f6e\u5173\u7a0e\u751f\u6548\u3002<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"risk-section risk-section-bottom\">\n<div class=\"inner\">\n<p class=\"risk\">\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u793a\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u611f\u609f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u5206\u6790\u90fd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u77ed\u671f\u6da8\u8dcc\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ed3\u8bba\u65e2\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7edd\u5bf9\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u98ce\u9669\u6781\u5927\uff0c\u4e25\u7981\u91cd\u4ed3\u4e2a\u80a1\u3001\u4e25\u7981\u52a0\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u968f\u65f6\u4f1a\u6709\u5de8\u4e8f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<footer>\n<div class=\"inner\">Micron cycle review \u00b7 Historical analysis only \u00b7 Price calculations use intraday extrema and may differ from close-to-close returns.<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n<p><\/main>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>PUBLIC EQUITY CYCLE REVIEW \u590d\u76d8\u7f8e\u514916-20\u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u3001\u5185\u5b58\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"article204-independent","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1159","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1159"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1177,"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1159\/revisions\/1177"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cwam.cc\/huiyuan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}